Tuesday, April 18, 2006

Like Cures Like

Back in 2002, the gibbering husks at Forbes Magazine were breathlessly excited about a Post-Saddam Premium: The invasion would send oil prices plummeting, which would deal a staggering blow to the anti-American fiends at OPEC, while heralding a bright new day for you and me and the man in the next street. And, of course, oil revenue would pay for the invasion and reconstruction (which Forbes cheerfully estimated would cost about $50 billion).

By 2004, Forbes had changed its tune, somewhat. The cover story on its October 18 issue was "Why $45 Oil is Good for You."

By that measure, things are getting better all the time. The price of oil has tripled since 2002.

Steve Forbes himself spent late 2005 touting $35 oil by early 2006. However, that prediction was at odds with Forbes' private advice to investors in September of 2005:

Oil and natural gas are on their way to significantly higher levels. I expect to see crude move to $65.00 this summer and to $76.00 by early next year.
Now, Steve Forbes is arguing that attacking Iran will bring oil prices down.
[W]hen we have the confrontation, which we will have, we can really deal with that crisis. Then the price of oil will come down.
Forbes' brand of Paracelsian economics has that magnetic allure common to all the hermetic arts. But speaking as a guy who bought shares of Adventus and Metacomments when prices were ridiculously low, I'd say bet the farm on oil prices going up before, during, and after an attack on Iran.

5 comments:

Eli said...

Nothing like blowing up the supply to drive down demand...


Kinda like how cutting taxes increases tax revenue.

monkeygrinder said...

Taking down Iran would me trouble, with a capital 't' --

Oil infrastructure is highly fragile, if the United States kicks the beehive, Iran is well positioned to embargo everything that comes out of the strait.

Speechless said...

Seems you're the sole shareholder in Adventus. What doth it profit you at this time? Would you go in there and bust his bunkers with virtual nukes hurled from the safety of your living room? And would that make your shares go up or down? SO difficult to read the markets.

And speaking of Forbes, seeing his name here reminded me that once upon a time he was trying to buy public office. When was that? What election (funny we still call them elections isn't it, they seem more like buy offs than elections, and the inaugurals should be rightly termed annoitings...but of Forbes, what became of him? Was it NJ governor or US president or what office did he attempt? And is it possible that he failed in that attempt? Was the defeat ignominious? Did he go down in flames or was it a silent pull out, for the good of hisyoung family. I seem to remember him flying around in his own plane, barnstorming for votes possibly. Funny, it's always the Democrats whose planes go down in flames in fields or lakes far from public view. Strange country this...

roger said...

and forbes will profit from higher oil prices.

Phila said...

Forbes' presidential bid had a number of problems. I think he gave people the creeps, for one thing. And he consorted with racists, IIRC. He may simply have been too big of a plutocratic asshole even for this deluded country.

As for Adventus...not sure how I'll wield my awesome power...