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hoo.Philahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15849261651028725772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8695598.post-1136876520334773302006-01-09T23:02:00.000-08:002006-01-09T23:02:00.000-08:00needed to be done. thanks.needed to be done. thanks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8695598.post-1136774553969195182006-01-08T18:42:00.000-08:002006-01-08T18:42:00.000-08:00No doubt some of you are familiar with the site As...No doubt some of you are familiar with the site Asia Times on Line, at which there are some good essays and reports on ongoing world affairs, especially in Asia. Surprizingly, however, despite the general good quality of the work, some of which shows up on sites like Truthout.org and counterpunch.org, there is some character there who calls himself Spengler, and who trots out the same sort of paranoid bloviation that Steyn spouts. In fact the two may be the same person. I was surprised to read this man assert that a declining Japanese birthrate would, in 20 or 30 years, lead to the downfall of Japanese society as it is infiltrated by Phillipina nurses. Spengler's take on the muslim takeover of Europe is the same as Steyn's. But the guy is a great writer in that his drivel is so erudite and maculated with internal inconsistencies and disconnects with reality, that it's like reading the Onion.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8695598.post-1136612908374813342006-01-06T21:48:00.000-08:002006-01-06T21:48:00.000-08:00by the way, found a remarkably well-researched ass...by the way, found a remarkably well-researched assessment of Steyn's long career of wingnuttery and distortion <A HREF="http://elementropy.blogspot.com/2005/12/wingnut-all-star-mark-steyn-wingnut_26.html" REL="nofollow">here.</A> links galore...AJ Kandyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05214748531532225414noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8695598.post-1136594748245043902006-01-06T16:45:00.000-08:002006-01-06T16:45:00.000-08:00AJ,The whole thing's baffling. I mean, Steyn doesn...AJ,<BR/><BR/>The whole thing's baffling. I mean, Steyn doesn't <I>have</I> a demographic argument. He simply notes the trend of sub-replacement fertility, assumes that any missing "Western" population will be replaced with Muslim immigrants, and then assumes that this'll magically result in a Muslim takeover of government. <BR/><BR/>What I tried to get across here, and perhaps I addressed it too quickly and casually, is that Steyn's done none of the work you'd need to do in order to make this argument. Taking Spain as an example, you'd want to look for starters at its current ethnic breakdown, its current religious breakdown, and the comparative birth rates in each group. <BR/><BR/>Then you'd want to look at immigration rates from various regions, and the religious identifications of those immigrants; you can't simply assume that every single immigrant from a Muslim country is going to be an extremist of some sort, or even religious. Plus, you need to consider the various rates of mortality before reproductive age, as well as the huge wild card of AIDS. <BR/><BR/>There's also the question of sub-replacement fertility in the Muslim world. Even people from the <A HREF="http://www.fpri.org/ww/0505.200407.eberstadt.demography.html" REL="nofollow">AEI</A> manage to acknowledge this point:<BR/><BR/><I>Perhaps the biggest surprise, given received notions about the Arab/Muslim expanse, is the recent spread of sub-replacement fertility to parts of the Arab and the Muslim world. Algeria, Tunisia, and Lebanon are now sub-replacement countries, as is Turkey. And there is the remarkable case of Iran, with a current TFR of under 1.9, which is lower than the United States’. Between 1986 and 2000, the country’s TFR plummeted from well over 6 to just over 2.</I><BR/><BR/>Steyn simply assumes that "good guys" are disappearing and being replaced with "bad guys." Where there should be reams of statistics and footnotes, there's simply a racist assumption about what an increasing Muslim population <I>must</I> mean for Europe. And even if he were right about <I>that</I>, his refusal to look at all of the variables here makes his timeline for an Islamic Europe pretty goddamn dubious, in my book.Philahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15849261651028725772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8695598.post-1136572146855593522006-01-06T10:29:00.000-08:002006-01-06T10:29:00.000-08:00WHT,That particular form of projection drives me a...WHT,<BR/><BR/>That particular form of projection drives me around the bend. These guys call everyone else "Chicken Little," while advancing dozens of bizarre doomsday scenarios..."gay marriage will result in bestiality becoming legal," etc.Philahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15849261651028725772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8695598.post-1136526191632827972006-01-05T21:43:00.000-08:002006-01-05T21:43:00.000-08:00I was reading your post and kept on thinking "doom...I was reading your post and kept on thinking "doomer ... doomer" and sure enough at the end you show that Steyn practices the fine art of projection as he labels the other side as the doomsayers.@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.com